All the references for this Mr Futurist Podcast are listed below in this article
While many Economists, are saying that the U.S. economy looks great and has a forward momentum, I’m going to take a different tone. Not a pessimistic tone but a realistic view based upon facts and my futurist intuitive insight.
Let’s discuss all the mass layoffs, in what is supposed to be a great U.S. economy of low unemployment and with a surging stock market.
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All of the information I’m going to give are included as links to the source material.
You have probably heard that,
Tesla is going to cut about 9% of its global workforce
McDonald’s layoffs as it restructures and streamlines management
3,000 layoffs at Novo Nordisk and a reduction long-term growth projections
Many of these positions are effecting white collar management and we are seeing technology companies and technology professionals be affected as well.
Let’s look at some comments from the finance industry that I believe give a very clear picture of what is happening.
From the Business Insider
Robots could replace as many as 10,000 jobs at Citi’s investment bank
We’ve got 20,000 operational roles. Over the next five years could you make it 10,000?” Jamie Forese, the president of Citi and chief executive of the bank’s institutional clients group, told the Financial Times in an interview.
Forese said, the most likely areas for automation were in technology and operations, which accounts for almost 40% of the headcount at Citi’s investment-banking arm. Forese described these roles as the “most fertile for machine processing.”
In the same article it states,
Other major banking executives made similar comments to the FT, with Goldman Sachs International’s CEO, Richard Gnodde — the bank’s most senior figure outside the US — saying he saw no reason automation couldn’t keep growing.
Also from the Business Insider
Deutsche Bank CEO: A ‘big number’ of our staff will be replaced by technology
I reported back in November of last year that, Ex-Google China President Kai-Fu Lee, said on a CNBC show that A.I. Will Obliterate Half Of All Jobs
Mr. Lee said, “White collar jobs are easier to take because they are a pure, quantitative, analytical process.”
Mr. Lee said in an interview with MIT Technology Review, in an article called,
Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs
“It will soon be obvious that half our tasks can be done better at almost no cost by AI. This will be the fastest transition humankind has experienced, and we’re not ready for it.”
Check out the whole article because he talks a lot about the AI race between China and the U.S.
I completely agree with Mr. Lee and have said for years that AI and smart technology will take over a lot more jobs than is being reported. I believe that is starting to happen now and will continue to happen and escalate with the next big U.S. recession.
On a side note, I think Kai-Fu Lee, is someone to watch and listen to, he seems to be very in tune with U.S. and China technology advances and business models.
According to CNBC U.S. Economy
Planned job cuts slow in May as retail continues to lead this year: Challenger report
According to the article,
“The 207,977 planned job cuts announced in 2018 is more than 6.2 percent higher than the same period of 2017.”
Not surprising that:
“Retail leads all sectors in job cuts this year, with 69,316 — far surpassing the next two closest sectors, health and consumer.”
What we are seeing here, is retail jobs shrinking, as automation prepares to dominate the industry.
If you are a manager or executive, I would start researching how automation and technology can and probably will, at some point, probably sooner than later, affect your career. This is not a time to be complacent. Retraining with the right skills, is the best option for the future.
I believe, there will be another deep U.S. recession in the U.S. that will have global impact. You don’t have to be a futurist or even an economist to know this because these things come in cycles and have always happened.
For example,
The last recession called the “Great Recession” was in 2008. Let’s look at an interesting pattern, since 1980, recessions have been coming every 10 years or so. In 2018, we are at the 10 year mark, so the odds are, keeping the same pattern, 2019 or 2020 is going to be the next recession and it looks like a big one. As I will explain.
The future is all about companies getting leaner and automating. The next major recession will create mass unemployment but unlike other recessions, a lot of jobs will not be coming back because of automation and technology. In fact, this will the best time for companies to look at automating as much as they can. At the same time, everyone needs to see how they will fit into the future career landscape.
Companies today, need to have a shifting long term automation and technology plan in place right now, in fact, everyone needs to have a shifting long term career path in place.
I’m not into politics and I’m unbiased about politics. I just hope that we can all work together to keep what looks like it’s going to happen from happening and destroying our country.
Having said that,
President Donald Trump recently said, “In many ways this is the greatest economy in the HISTORY of America and the best time EVER to look for a job!”
I’ve seen many interviews with economists on the mainstream financial news shows agree that the economy is doing great and short and long term projections look good.
This is the same President who also said, “We are going to stimulate the economy by bringing back American manufacturing and American manufacturing jobs.”
I had a post–World War II economic expansion flashback on that one.
Again, these are not a negative politically fueled comments about of our current President because our entire U.S. political system is antiquated with people who don’t know anything about technology and are out of touch with the times we are living in. Their wait until something goes wrong before recognizing it and working on it, is not a positive approach to the future and a fast growing technological revolution.
I believe, the truth is, our current U.S. economy is like a house with a foundation built upon sand and it’s anything but solid. Many of these newly created jobs are lower paying jobs in industries that technology and automation will replace.
What we need in the U.S., is a real jobs training program to start replacing the 85,000 H1B jobs that were created this year and the hundreds of thousands of H1B workers right now in the U.S.
In my opinion, the U.S. public education system is outdated and our U.S. expensive debt producing college system, is antiquated as well, in our current technological revolution but that’s a discussion for another article.
20,000 of these H1B’s were for the advanced degree exemption. The H-1B visa master’s degree exemption is used to accommodate foreign nationals who hold advanced degrees.
The first question is, that directly relates to the U.S. economy, “When the U.S. has arguably the best universities in the world, why are 20,000 jobs being filed by foreign nationals because they have an advanced degree each year?
H1B Lottery 2018 | Results, Process, and 2019 Chances (Updated 4/17/18)
I will also add something I’ve been talking about for years. There is a heathy and growing neo-luddite movement today in the U.S. and companies that become the first to fully automated and have layoffs will become their targets. This means, brands that depend upon mass customers and customer loyalty will need to be very careful about how they implement automation and lay off employees.
Having talked to and looked at what many neo-luddites say and post, I can tell you with confidence, that most of them don’t understand technology, the technology revolution and have no ambition of training themselves or their children for our future world.
They also mass consume social media and technology but don’t care how it’s created or how it works. I also think we need a more caring and understanding approach to this situation, instead of all of the gloom and doom, the robots are coming for your jobs marketing.
There is a lot of technology paranoia and fear in the U.S. public and it’s growing. A lot of it is based upon ignorance and fear based propaganda. I am pointing out there is a real issue with technology replacing a lot of jobs because it will but we need to start having thoughtful, rational and intelligent discussions about this. A mass public, fearful of technology and always having to be worried about losing their job or career, does not promote stability and it’s not good for anyone, companies, people and the U.S. economy.
This is why, again, companies need to have an excellent long term automation and technology plan in place right now. You don’t want to be the first and not the last to do it. As well as, people need to start educating themselves.
U.S. cities with populations over 1 million accounted for 72% of all employment growth since the 2008 financial crisis, according to a study from the Brookings Institution. Meanwhile, small cities have struggled to bounce back, and employment in rural areas is below pre-recession rates. The tech industry’s rapid growth in recent decades has contributed to this widening divide. What might help? Programs that boost digital skills in less populated regions and policies that help people move to other parts of the U.S.
In Superstar Cities, the Rich Get Richer, and They Get Amazon
Inequality undermines democracy
The boom experienced by the U.S. housing market following the Great Recession is over, Goldman Sachs recently suggested. The firm says rising mortgage rates, reduced tax benefits and home price growth outpacing rent increases are all working to shift the market into a lower gear. Demographic changes and debt loads are also not helping. Dallas, which is seeing the slowdown earlier than other parts of the country, are already seeing some home prices being cut by up to $150,000.